9 Predictions For Dance Music, Audio Production, and DJ-ing in 2011: Were They Correct??
Wednesday, December 14, 2011 at 10:06PM 
At the tail end of last year I wrote a piece discussing a couple of trends I was forecasting for the coming year in terms of dance music in general. Some of them also pertained to audio production and DJ-ing. Having almost forgotten about the post I decided to go back and have a look at it again to determine how accurate I was. The observations I made were pretty interesting, so figured I’d do a follow-up piece to it. Below are the nine prediction I made (in pink), and following that I discuss what actually happened this past year.
Prediction 1: An iPad app will be released by at least one major software DAW manufacturer.
Result: True. Although it’s a bit disappointing to not see Logic, Ableton, or Cubase ported over to the iPad this past year, strides have been made to bridge the gap between the traditional desktop DAW and a touch-controlled utility on the iPad. Because of Logic, I obviously consider Apple to be one of the major players in this industry, and importing GarageBand to the iPad (which Apple released in early 2011) was a good way to get the ball rolling.
Apple has been known to unroll new features in their consumer-oriented apps before the pro versions to test the waters. Therefore I still think it’s only a matter of time before we see a stripped-down version of Logic make its way to the iPad.
Oh yeah, let’s not forget Native Instruments’ iMaschine. With its pads, built-in mixer, keyboards, ability to record, and full-fledged sequencer, iMaschine is approaching the capabilities of what a basic desktop DAW can do. Not only is it priced competitively in relation to other apps, but the skin-tight integration with their popular Maschine controller is an obvious bonus.
Prediction 2: Increased demand for vintage samplers.
Result: False. Vintage synths and drum machines continue to rise dramatically in price as producers are looking for any way to sound unique. However, my prediction about old school samplers just wasn’t correct. In fact, this prediction appears to be a result of my own nostalgia surrounding legendary devices like the Akai S950 more so than anything else.
The Akai S950 and E-MU SP-1200 were really the only samplers renowned for creating a distinct, lo-fi sound because of their 12-bit processors. Samplers that came before them are so limited in use that it’s almost impossible to find a viable way to incorporate them into a current-day workflow. And samplers that came after them, while powerful, aren’t really capable of doing anything that can’t be done on the computer. I honestly see only the S950 and SP-1200 holding any sort of value in the extended future; most other samplers have been made completely redundant at this point.
Prediction 3: A BIG year for Ableton and Soundcloud.
Result: True. Soundcloud enjoyed EXPLOSIVE growth in 2011! In a recent interview with Soundcloud founder Alexander Ljung (link here), he mentioned that the site currently boasts 7.5 million users. TWO THIRDS of them signed up in 2011. Part of its growth can be attributed to its ease of use and tight integration with Facebook, Twitter, and blogs. As well as a much-improved iPhone app that fixed many of the problems the original, late-2009 version had.

Honestly I also think Soundcloud has become the final nail in the coffin for Myspace. Once a social media giant, the only advantage Myspace had in recent years was it served as a viable platform for artists to share music. Many bands, both on a large and small scale, have completely abandoned the former behemoth this past year in favor of Soundcloud. I have no idea how their bottom line looks, but it was a good thing that Soundcloud managed to unroll their payment structure to monetize the site very early on. Many “social” services on the web often struggle with this. With no changes in the price structure since mid-2009, it’s a fair assessment that their balance sheets have looked good in 2011.
And what about Ableton? Well, all has been quiet this past year in Berlin. 2011 saw no major (or even minor for that matter) updates to their flagship software. So many features were added in versions 7 and 8 that many fans are completely satisfied with the program for now. There really needs to be some groundbreaking improvements for most people to justify spending hard-earned cash on a new version. While other DAW manufacturers are rushing to keep their product refresh cycle going, Ableton remains one of the most popular programs even with 3 years of no updates.
Prediction 4: The further merging of different genres, and the continued dominance of dubstep.
Result: True. Boy was I right about this prediction; in fact, more so than any of the other ones. Obviously what I’m about to say is entirely objective. I’m still not a huge dubstep fan myself (in general), so take all of this with, like, a tablespoon full of salt.
Dubstep has fully immersed itself into mainstream culture on both sides of the Atlantic. FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE. America has crowned its poster boy for 2011, and his name is Skrillex. Like it or not, Skrillex is all over the Billboard charts. He has been nominated for multiple Grammys, collaborated with Korn, The Doors, and DJ Premier (amongst a very long list of others), and has become an endless source of controversy on message boards and Facebook between his fans and genre purists. Dubstep music has also been all over TV, included in shows such as Jersey Shore and Breaking Bad, and in commercials like a recent spot for Taco Bell. The younger generation often dictates what gets the media spotlight. With A-list artists adopting the sound in order to stay trendy (and profitable) to this younger crowd, dubstep won’t be getting the silent treatment from the media any time soon. And the scenario is much the same throughout the U.K. and Europe, where N.E.R.O. and Chase & Status have enjoyed a huge chart presence and BBC playlist rotation in 2011.

If you have a lot of friends in any dance music scene and are active on Facebook, you don’t have to search very long to find someone talking about the state of dubstep in 2011. It has been a very divisive topic that is beyond the scope of this post. As a sound it is bigger than I ever could have fathomed even a year ago. And I think its incorporation in pop and mainstream culture is going to continue well into 2012. I mean, if the surviving members of the Doors, Korn, Britney Spears, Pauly D, and Justin Bieber are embracing the sound, I could only imagine who will be next in line. If the kids continue to lap it up, it will continue to be the hot thing.
And as to the further merging of different genres, the open-format style of DJ-ing and production is in full force. Some are calling it “Bass” music, and it’s become a bit of a movement in and of itself (especially in the UK). Cross-pollinating between different genres used to be considered unconventional; today it’s the norm. Bass music is evolving so rapidly it’s only fitting to give it a very general title; in fact, a title isn’t even necessary at all. The guidelines have been lifted, if it sounds good, people will support it. Point blank.
Prediction 5: More artists will release music on their own.
Result: True. This is one that is next to impossible to measure, but there’s no question musicians are starting to side-step the labels to try making it on their own. This is not without unintended consequences. Labels are obviously on tighter budgets these days and aren’t prone to taking the gambles on unknown artists they used to be able to. So musicians learn the hard way they have to be their own designer, publicist, book keeper, PR expert, and distributions manager just to get heard. It’s often the starting point they delve into once realizing from their peers that they have the potential to obtain a career in music.
The fact these artists have the entire Internet (along with an endless supply of social media driven channels) at their fingertips certainly doesn’t make things easier. They often have to put in countless hours of work getting their music out there, promoting it in a creative way that isn’t intrusive or shameless. Following that, they need to establish relationships with all of their supporters, as well as anyone who can throw them a bone. Then channeling it across every social media website, of which there is now a new flavor-of-the-month every WEEK.
One distinct side effect is the quality control issue; the web has become cluttered with generic and poorly-produced garbage. Some artists learn the hard way (through lack of responses) that their work isn’t quite cutting it. Others release their tracks to storefronts like Beatport, only to get kicked off after a single quarter when sales ring in well below their quarterly requirements. Proper promotion is tougher than meets the eye. It wouldn’t surprise me if musicians become trained from early on that they’re going to have to wear multiple hats aside from music making if they want to build a following. With the system becoming more democratized as established labels are collapsing, independent musicians are going to have more work cut out for them.
Prediction 6: More “vinyl-only” themed nights.
Result: False. Vinyl-only nights have by no means exploded, or have the sale of records in general. In fact, vinyl sales across all genres are hanging by a thread right now. There are vinyl-only nights happening; but most either seem to be parties balancing a 1990s theme driven by nostalgia. Some dubstep and drum & bass events still exist where the DJ’s who play use primarily vinyl and dubplates as well. That’s really about it.
All in all, I think the consumption of vinyl (and therefore, the themed nights themselves) will hinge very heavily upon what happens in the general economy. I was a 100% vinyl DJ until the recession began; the uncertainties led me to sharply reduce the amount I’ve been buying since 2009. And this echoes true with many–superfluous expenses which families and individuals start to eliminate during hard times. If things get worse, expect to start seeing “free music” themed nights instead. Whatever you want to think of that. Either way, this isn’t Zerohedge so I’ll leave the economy talk to other people for now.
Prediction 7: Every DJ will perform on unique equipment.
Result: True. Although Pioneer CDJ’s and Technics 1200’s still reign supreme, they no longer enjoy the dominance they once had several years ago. As more people are discovering ways to not just play, but perform other people’s work using Ableton, sophisticated MIDI controllers are becoming the flavor of the year.
Keep in mind: it’s a very saturated market with dozens of flavors. DJ’s are committing their allegiance to what they know best, and don’t have the time to learn a controller they don’t already have. It may be easy to learn how to play on different mixers, but MIDI controllers are a whole different ballgame. So as they’re catching on, every DJ will come to a club with a unique one to ensure they’ll be at their best level performance-wise.
Prediction 8: More stems and remix projects made open to the public.
Result: Draw. Stems for remixing and DJ-ing aren’t given out on a widespread basis. I think it has to do with producers being concerned with people stealing their sounds to use in their own songs. However I notice that the musicians at the VERY top of the totem pole, such as Tiesto, Moby, and David Guetta, are selling or giving away stems of their work. Another setback with stems is the fact they can be pricey. On storefronts such as Beatport, each individual sample or loop sells for the same $1.49-2 price the full MP3 retails. Buying the stems for a full song can cost upwards of $20!

However, remix contests have really caught on this past year. In a world where competition is fierce and new producers are desperate for a leg-up, they might be able to get some publicity by entering one. A common prize for the winner is often a proper release on the next single the big-name producer is coming out with. Not many musicians are on board with this concept, but it has been an interesting trend in 2011. Anything that can put you on the radar of a big-name producer or DJ can’t hurt, right?
Prediction 9: The death of the pre-recorded DJ studio mix.
Result: True. I hate to be the bearer of the bad news here, but I think DJ’s are starting to be viewed as expendable in the eyes of many people in the electronic music scene, especially the younger generation. Everyone is now an expert on music. Social networks are rapidly making people knowledgable on what tracks are hot and apps are enabling even the most casual of fans to mix records on a smart phone. And you know what they say: “When everyone is an expert, nobody is.” Simply put, fewer people are phased by someone playing other people’s music. I think the older generation will always naturally understand the art and skill behind a good DJ set, but I think the millennial crowd could care less for the most part.
Attention spans are shorter than ever thanks to the Internet and other disruptions in our chaotic lives. Many times I’ve found myself downloading a mix and only listening to it for 5-10 minutes before realizing I have to do something else never quite engaging the way the DJ intended. On my Soundcloud page, my 10-minute Ableton mini-mixes have gotten around 5 times the traffic any of my longer-format mixes obtained. Think of the bounce rate on websites; they often last less than a minute and many only visit a single page. It’s too bad there aren’t analytics to figure out how long people listen to a DJ mix for. I’m willing to bet many only listen to the first song or two and “bounce” after a few minutes as well! Sad, but true.
In closing
It’s been a very interesting year in the world of dance music. The artist and the DJ have more resources than ever before, but there are many pros and cons to this. Many sounds are evolving very rapidly, and others have enjoyed quite a bit of mainstream presence around the globe. I’m working on a 2012 prediction post as we speak. I will be releasing it during the holiday week later this month. Don’t worry, that one’s going to be pretty interesting too ;)
nickdawg |
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